There are various attempts to predict the development of the economy. Whether todays seer watches hemlines, hair length or lipstick sales, nothing really seems to work reliably.
After 10 years in licensing we feel, that our industry is 12 to 18 months ahead of the general economy.
We saw licensing slow down early 2000, well before the crash of 2001.
The recovery came earlier too, in 2002.
This weeks licensing numbers for 2007 show decreases across the board. We will see, when this will turn again.
Maybe licensing is a decent indicator.